Kobe Redux

I just read something that kind of blew my mind at Henry Abbot's TrueHoop:

I urge you to consider an amazing email from professor Stephen Ilardi, who has consulted with Roy Williams' staff at Kansas, and is an expert in adusted +/-. He writes: "CP3 is obviously one of the game's top offensive players, his overall defensive performance this season has been poor. How can I be sure? The simplest way is to look at the Hornets' defensive efficiency (opponents' points-per-100-possessions) with Paul on-court versus off-court. With Paul on the court, the Hornets give up 106.37 points every 100 possessions; with him off the court they're much better defensively, giving up only 99.94 points every 100 possessions. It's worth noting that Paul's on-off disparity is the worst of all Hornets players (starters or subs), so it cannot be a mere artifact of his being on the court with other poor defensive players. (By way of comparison, for example, the Hornets are 1.5 points better defensively with David West on the court). As you know, the best measure of a player's overall impact on the game's bottom line is his adjusted plus-minus rating, which adjusts statistically for the effect of all teammates and opponents, and also factors in both offensive and defensive contributions. Paul's adjusted plus-minus rating right now (through games of April 10) is +0.76 points per 100 possessions, indicative of a modest overall positive contribution. Put simply: his superb offensive contributions have been largely offset by his apparent defensive liabilities. Based on this season's adjusted plus-minus numbers, a much stronger MVP case can be made for either Kobe (+12.04) or LeBron (+11.35), and perhaps the best case of all for Dwight Howard (+16.57)

I don't know what to believe anymore. Adjusted +/- numbers are generally pretty hard to interpret because the small sample of minutes you play with bit players can have an enormous effect, but I can't deny that PER may overrate Paul a little because of his incredibly high steal numbers without genuinely strong defense. I'd be surprised if CP3's really that poor a defender though.

Does this mean I'm changing my vote to Kobe? No, but it does mean that I won't be at all upset if he does win, like I would have yesterday. Also, I think I'd now vote for LeBron, who basically every sane person and statistic agrees is the best player in the game. I'm not a big "best player on a winning team" guy. I'm more of a "best player" guy, so it doesn't bother me that Cleveland's not all that good. If Paul's as good as his PER says, then his intangibles and the success of his team beat LBJ, but when stuff like this comes to my attention, I have to just give it to the guy I see as the best player. I also think it's true that D-Ho (I love that nickname) deserves more credit than he gets, but I can't believe he's really a better player than LBJ though maybe I'm just fitting the evidence to support my conclusion. It's always so damn hard to tell.